|  | | Trading with San Francisco: A Giants' perspective. | | By Jamey Newberg September 1, 2008 | THE NOB HILL REPORT
*Covering the San Francisco Giants from Top to Bottom*
If there’s anything that 59-77 has taught us as loyal Giants fans, it’s that we play in baseball’s weakest division, aren’t anywhere close to competitive in it, and don’t appear to be on the verge of making any NL West noise in the next couple years. This will probably be our fourth straight year in the 70s in wins, and while our farm system has made some real progress the past year or two, the strength is in starting pitching, which means two things: (1) hope they’re ready to rack up the no-decisions – if it weren’t for Washington, we’d have the worst offense in the league . . . for the second year in a row, and third out of four; and (2) we actually might have an opportunity here to do something bold.
If new managing general partner Bill Neukom doesn’t replace GM Brian Sabean this winter (he’s under contract through 2009, with a club option for 2010), Sabean probably has to know that he’ll be expected to do something aggressive to change the team’s fortunes in order to keep his job.
Here’s one assessment of the franchise’s big-picture assets, offensively:
* Outfielders Aaron Rowand (age 31) and Fred Lewis (27) and Nate Schierholtz (24)
* Catcher Buster Posey (21)
* Catcher-corner infielder Pablo Sandoval (22)
* Corner infielder Angel Villalona (18)
* Second baseman Nick Noonan (19)
The rest is pitching. And there’s lots of it. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Brian Wilson on the big league staff. Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Henry Sosa, Jesse English, and others on the farm.
And of course, there’s Barry Zito, who is necessarily a big-picture asset because we’re paying him $18.5 million next year, $18.5 million in 2010, $18.5 million in 2011, $19 million in 2012, $20 million in 2013, and $7 million to dump him from the payroll in 2014 (though if he somehow finds a way to earn 200 innings of work in 2013 [or 400 in 2012-13, or 600 in 2011-13], his $18 million contract for 2014 vests, too). And he’s got a full no-trade clause, though that’s sort of irrelevant because he might be baseball’s most untradeable player right now.
If Sabean wants to make a splash this winter – or let’s be honest: if a replacement comes in and wants to immediately place his stamp on this thing – there’s one obvious way to do this: Trade pitching to rework the look of this lineup, because waiting on Posey, Villalona, and Noonan isn’t all that inviting. Keep Lincecum, of course, but everyone else is fair game.
Figuring out who wants to get in on this will be easy. There’s no team out there who would turn down a chance to improve its rotation. I’m not dealing with the Diamondbacks or Dodgers, despite their strength in young hitters, because I’m not into the idea of facing Cain or Sanchez that many times every year while trying to chase their teams.
Can we get Atlanta to put Jason Heyward in a package? The Mets: Fernando Martinez (after they emptied the farm for Johan Santana)? St. Louis: Colby Rasmus? Pittsburgh: Andrew McCutchen?
Just as the Twins were probably happy to get Santana out of the AL altogether, all things equal it would be a good thing, if we’re going to move Cain in particular, to send him to the other league.
Looking at the deepest systems in the AL, I’m ruling Oakland out, because having Cain develop into a 20-game winner across the Bay as that team grows around him would put him above the fold in the Chronicle every time he pitches, and that’s not happening.
Tampa Bay? The Rays would have no interest, it would seem, in trading offense for another starter when they have Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Edwin Jackson, David Price, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, Jeremy Hellickson, and Jake McGee on hand. Frankly, Tampa Bay might actually be our competition if we were to put Cain on the market, as any team interested in our guy might have a chance to get with the Rays on one of theirs, too.
The Red Sox and Yankees will be interested, of course, and we need to get them involved, if for no other reason to raise the stakes. But it’s doubtful Boston would move Lars Anderson or Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie has probably made himself virtually untouchable. Bet we could get New York to part with Austin Jackson, but he alone isn’t going to remake our lineup, and the Yankees’ strength on the farm is also in pitching. Jesus Montero is a possibility, but where is he going to fit if we have Posey behind the plate and Sandoval or Villalona at first? Does Robinson Cano fit, considering he’s under contract for $27 million over the next three years (or $54 million over the next five if his two club options are picked up)?
Sure do like the Rangers’ farm system. They have impact talent everywhere on the field. And let’s be honest: If Cain were to go star in Texas, that’s more palatable from a P.R. standpoint here than if he were doing it in the National League, or in Oakland, or on national TV every week in New York or Boston.
First, remember that Henry Schulman reported in the Chronicle just before the trade deadline that Texas covets Sanchez and might have been dangling Hank Blalock in a possible deal for him in July before Blalock had a physical setback. (And some blogger named Newberg wrote: “I have an unnatural partiality to Sanchez, just like I always have for Oliver Perez” – maybe if the Rangers’ front office is that into Sanchez themselves, we can take advantage of that and work talks on the 25-year-old, keeping the 23-year-old Cain off the table for another deal.)
I’ll offer Sanchez (he had an awful July [0-3, 8.57] and hasn’t pitched in three weeks due to a shoulder thing, but he’s slated to start today) and ask for Chris Davis and Elvis Andrus, and the Rangers will say no. They’ll probably try to turn the discussion to Cain and refuse to offer Davis or Andrus, and we’ll say no. And that all assumes, of course, that this type of discussion didn’t already take place more than a month ago, which is silly. Surely there’s already been plenty of groundwork laid.
Cain, incidentally, is owed just $6.9 million over the next two years combined, has a $6.25 million club option in 2011 (which could vest based on innings pitched or games started or Cy Young finish, and which could also increase to as much as $8.15 million based on the first two categories), and he’ll then have free agency rights. He’s a huge bargain and, though he’s a lifetime 30-40 pitcher (a third of his starts have been no-decisions even though he gets into the seventh inning on average), he’s undoubtedly a potential number one.
But the righthander’s also leading the major leagues in pitches thrown this year. Not sure that that’s as much of a red flag as Lincecum’s delivery, but it’s something to consider given his age.
As for Sanchez, the lefthander has one more pre-arbitration season and then three more years before he can be a free agent. He’s just 12-15, 4.92 in his career (8-9, 4.53 in 24 starts this year), but he has as much upside as any young pitcher that the Rangers have gotten to the big leagues this season, and he’s inexpensive.
Let’s look at the young players worth targeting, but first, here’s a thought: Blalock really looks out of rhythm right now, but maybe if he finds his stroke this month we take a chance on him in the deal. We liked him at mid-season. His $6.2 million option for 2009 isn’t a payroll crusher, at he’ll still only be 27 when this season ends. Rich Aurilia comes off the books in a month, and there’s no sense in going forward with the 37-year-old at first base. If Blalock settles in here, maybe he can give this roster a solid veteran bat, hold things down until Villalona arrives, and, if things go badly for the Giants in 2009, his contract could be flippable at the deadline. But first, he’s got to show something in September. He’s not in sync right now.
OK, I want a shortstop and I want a center fielder, and that means I want Andrus and I want Julio Borbon. I want another outfield bat that I can put in the lineup right away, and David Murphy is my guy. I’m certainly going to get a young pitcher in the deal, even if it’s not my number one priority, and I’m asking for Eric Hurley or Matt Harrison.
So that’s my proposal to Texas: Jonathan Sanchez for Andrus, Borbon, Murphy, and Hurley or Harrison.
The Rangers will tell me that they won’t give that package up for Cain, let alone Sanchez.
Maybe they counter with something like Joaquin Arias (impressive offensively since Ian Kinsler got hurt, though I have my doubts as to whether his arm will ever play at shortstop again) or Marcus Lemon, Marlon Byrd, and a couple local products, Zach Phillips and Wes Littleton.
And we’ll say no.
We’ll haggle over the shortstop, settle on Byrd (who has two arbitration years left) rather than Borbon as a center field option, agree to make Blalock part of the deal rather than Murphy, and we’ll grapple over what pitching we get back.
Maybe the talks boil down to Hurley, Lemon, Byrd, and Blalock, which Texas offers for Cain, to which we say absolutely not – but we’d do it for Sanchez. The Rangers may “covet” Sanchez, but they aren’t going to go that far.
So to do a Cain deal, we need more back.
To do a Sanchez deal, we need to improve our offer.
So then we tell the Rangers that, to move Cain, they need to add Omar Poveda, whose pedestrian-looking 4-4, 4.57 season belies the fact that, at age 20, he’s gone 3-1, 2.38 (30 hits and 18 walks in 41.2 innings, 44 strikeouts) in his last seven starts in the hitter-friendly California League.
And as far as Sanchez is concerned, we don’t insist on Poveda and we reluctantly agree to put 25-year-old righthander Sergio Romo in the deal. The reliever has given up 13 runs (eight earned: 3.43 ERA) on 14 hits and four walks in 21 big league innings, fanning 22. In four minor league seasons, he’s struck out 10 hitters per nine innings, with fewer hits plus walks allowed than innings pitched. He’s short, tends to give up more flyballs than grounders, and has average stuff, but he gets guys out – especially lefties, who are dealing with his changeup by hitting .107 in the big leagues.
But we want a catcher back. Yeah, Posey is our long-term answer, but Sandoval probably isn’t going to stay behind the plate, Jackson Williams may never hit, and – hey – the Rangers have shown what a good idea it is to stockpile catching prospects. We’ll take Manny Pina, who is so good defensively that if his bat plays at all, he’ll be a big league backup. The 21-year-old is hitting .286 in Frisco and .270 for the season, striking out just once every 10 times up.
We’ll also drop Blalock from the deal.
So:
For Matt Cain: Eric Hurley, Omar Poveda, Marcus Lemon, Marlon Byrd, and – if he shows something in September – Hank Blalock. And ultimately, we probably hold out for Andrus instead of Lemon, and might insist on Engel Beltre rather than Byrd.
For Jonathan Sanchez and Sergio Romo: Eric Hurley, Marcus Lemon, Manny Pina, and Marlon Byrd.
Quickly, before I get out of here to settle in for Sanchez’s return to the mound this afternoon, I know Giants fans probably haven’t had the pleasure of listening much to the late Mark Holtz or current Rangers radio play-by-play man Eric Nadel, but they are both candidates once again for the 2009 Ford C. Frick Award, and you should vote for them. Balloting begins today at www.baseballhalloffame.org, and you can vote up to once per day throughout the month.
Also, this may be a Giants blog, but did you see that Dale Scott call at home plate Saturday night in the Angels game against the Rangers? Maybe the worst I’ve ever seen.
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| NEWS FLASH! 9/2/2010 3:28:17 PM- Magic number drops to 20, and we pass the savings on to you.
Read | NEWS FLASH! 9/2/2010 7:10:21 AM- Column on TexasRangers.com and footage from the Game-Watching Party.
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